Context: The Union Government has deferred the 2027 Census in Manipur following discussions over the demand to conduct the National Register of Citizens (NRC) before the Census.
- The issue reflects three interconnected concerns: citizenship and demographic change, displacement following the 2023 ethnic conflict, and political representation through delimitation.
- The NRC demand predates the 2023 violence but has acquired greater political and security significance following the influx from Myanmar.
Why Is the Census Being Opposed?
1. Citizenship and Demographic Change
- Meitei groups in the valley and Naga groups in the hills have raised concerns that migration from Myanmar and elsewhere has altered Manipur’s demographic composition.
- They favour identifying Indian citizens and alleged illegal immigrants before population figures are formally recorded through the Census.
- Kuki-Zo groups, however, dispute the characterisation of their community as being linked to illegal immigration.
2. Displacement After the 2023 Conflict
- The ethnic conflict that began in May 2023 displaced thousands of people from their original places of residence.
- Opponents of an immediate Census argue that conducting it amid continuing displacement could capture the demographic consequences of conflict and displacement, rather than the underlying population distribution.
- This is particularly significant because Census data can subsequently influence political representation and delimitation.
3. Political Representation
- Census population figures are important for future delimitation, which determines the territorial boundaries and distribution of electoral constituencies.
- Manipur has not implemented a fresh delimitation based on a recent Census since the 1970s, making the next exercise politically consequential.
Manipur’s Ethnic and Geographic Fault Lines
- Manipur broadly consists of valley areas dominated by Meiteis and hill areas predominantly inhabited by Naga and Kuki-Zomi communities.
- The State has 60 Assembly seats: 40 in the valley and 20 in the hills.
- The demographic and territorial distribution of these communities makes Census and delimitation particularly sensitive.
Is the NRC Demand New?
- The demand existed before the May 2023 ethnic conflict.
- In June 2022, the Coordinating Committee on Manipur Integrity (COCOMI) and the United Naga Council (UNC) jointly demanded an NRC and a State Population Commission, citing immigration and demographic concerns.
- In August 2022, the Manipur Assembly adopted a resolution seeking both measures; the resolution was reaffirmed in March 2024.
- The Manipur government subsequently constituted the Manipur State Population Commission in February 2023, giving the demographic issue an institutional framework.
Population-Growth Concerns
- The 2022 Assembly resolution highlighted substantially higher population growth in the hill districts compared with the valley:
- 1971–2001: Hills — 153.3%; Valley — 94.8%.
- 2001–2011: Hills — 250.9%; Valley — 125.4%.
- These figures do not by themselves establish illegal immigration, but they contributed to concerns regarding unexplained demographic changes.
- The controversy surrounding unusually high population growth in some hill subdivisions had already emerged during earlier Census exercises.
Impact of the Myanmar Crisis
- The 2021 military coup in Myanmar intensified migration pressures along the India-Myanmar border.
- Conflict in Myanmar’s Chin State and adjoining areas pushed thousands into India, including people belonging to Chin and related communities with ethnic and familial links to Kuki-Zomi groups.
- The Manipur government associated the influx with concerns over new settlements, poppy cultivation, encroachment and demographic change.
- Kuki organisations rejected this characterisation, arguing that Indian citizens and recent arrivals from Myanmar were being conflated.
- The Centre’s decision to scrap the Free Movement Regime (FMR) with Myanmar in February 2024, citing security and demographic concerns, further intensified the debate.
Growing Naga Demand for NRC
- Naga groups have increasingly linked the NRC demand with Census and delimitation.
- The UNC has demanded that NRC should precede the Census and delimitation, with 1951 as the proposed base year.
- The demand has also received support across the State’s major political parties, including sections of both the BJP and Congress.
Kuki-Zo Position: Opposition to NRC Before Census
- Kuki-Zo organisations strongly oppose conducting an NRC before the Census, describing the proposal as premature and unjustified.
- They argue that NRC is fundamentally a national exercise and that neither a State nor a particular community should independently undertake it.
- They contend that allegations of illegal immigration involving Kuki-Zo communities lack sufficient evidence and should first be tested against credible demographic data.
- From their perspective, the Census should establish reliable demographic data first, followed by any necessary citizenship-related exercise.
- They also support delimitation based on verified population data.
- A key concern is that Kuki, Zomi and Chin communities have historically lived on both sides of the India-Myanmar border; an NRC based on an old documentary cut-off could potentially question the citizenship of people who have lived in Manipur for generations.
Why Does Delimitation Matter?
- Manipur currently has 60 Assembly constituencies—40 in the valley and 20 in the hills.
- The present arrangement largely reflects the 1973 delimitation, which was based on the 1971 Census.
- A fresh delimitation based on newer population data could alter the existing political balance.
Why Was Manipur Excluded from Earlier Delimitation?
- A nationwide delimitation exercise based on the 2001 Census was undertaken between 2002 and 2008.
- Manipur, along with Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, was excluded after the Centre deferred delimitation in 2008 due to security concerns and questions regarding the credibility of Census data in the region.
- The 2001 Census had generated controversy in Manipur because several hill subdivisions recorded exceptionally high population growth:
- 9 subdivisions: growth above 40%.
- 4 subdivisions: growth above 100%.
Political Implications
- Sections of the valley-based political leadership fear that a fresh Census followed by delimitation could reduce the valley’s longstanding political advantage.
- The existing 40:20 valley-hill distribution could potentially change substantially depending on the population figures used for delimitation.
Can NRC Be Conducted Only in Manipur?
- A proposed nationwide NRC has generally been linked to updating the National Population Register (NPR).
- However, the government has not notified the NPR exercise for the 2027 Census.
- Under Section 14A of the Citizenship Act, 1955, the Central Government has the power to compulsorily register Indian citizens and maintain the National Register of Indian Citizens.
- There is no statutory requirement that an NRC must necessarily be implemented simultaneously across the entire country.
- Therefore, the Centre could, in principle, notify an NRC for a specific State or border region, making the issue substantially a matter of government policy and political decision-making.
Alternative to a State-Specific NRC
High-Level Committee on Demographic Change
- The Centre has constituted a High-Level Committee on Demographic Change, announced in May 2026.
- It is tasked with examining demographic changes arising from illegal immigration and other abnormal causes.
- The committee is expected to recommend appropriate policy, legislative and administrative measures.
- Its findings could potentially provide the basis for a Manipur-specific policy response to demographic concerns without immediately resorting to a separate NRC.
Important Terms
- NRC: Register of persons who are Indian citizens; distinct from the Census, which primarily collects demographic and socio-economic data.
- NPR: Register of usual residents of the country; citizenship and usual residence are conceptually different.
- Census: Primarily a population enumeration and demographic data exercise; it does not by itself determine citizenship.
- Delimitation: Redrawing electoral constituency boundaries based primarily on population, subject to constitutional and statutory provisions.
- Core issue in Manipur: The NRC debate lies at the intersection of citizenship, migration, ethnic identity, displacement, border management and political representation.
